http://sharpshorts.blogspot.com/

A simple Swing-Trading strategy

Ideas on this page are adapted from Larry Williams , a very successful speculator (he also developed the Williams%R indicator). Some of his work revolved around the idea of the seasonality of markets. His statistical analysis suggested that certain times of the month presented more favorable entries than other times. He applied his work using the commodities markets.

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This page documents the results of my adaptations of Mr.  Williams’ strategies and applied to the e-mini futures. The ideas were initiated in late 2015 —

they have resulted in a success rate approaching 75% by following these two simple rules:


1…BUY the First and last Mondays of every month. 
Take 10% of the previous session’s range and add that to the open price for the entry
2…BUY the Friday before OEX at the close…………..

This is a purely mechanical approach, used for timing long entries in the ES e-mini futures as a proxy for the S&P 500. As of October 2017 I also started tracking the YM (DOW 30) and the NQ (Nasdaq 100).This approach does not  consider fundamental factors, news or events. I am tracking its results using the two rules stated above. My FLO system is based on my interpretation of Mr. William’s analysis of market seasonality.  I’ve done no ‘back-testing’ of results, no position draw-down studies or profit taking rules development.

The markets have been up trending the entire period that I’ve been recording FLO Trades (beginning in 2015).
 Whether my “FLO Trade” results will continue to be as stellar as they appear to have been

  during the current bull market  is yet to be seen when the next bear market occurs.

The methods can work well for trading many diverse markets. In general you can use them to enhance the timing of long entries in any investment vehicle…ETFs, stocks…etc.
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*************FLO trades using the e-mini futures*************
(as proxies for the major indices)
Picture below includes a 3 month daily chart for selected e-mini futures as an example of the entry trade timing as of the Last Friday before OEX in July 2018.
Yellow arrows – 1st Monday  of the month..
Green arrows   – Last Monday of the month
White arrows – Friday before OEX …………..
(OEX…Stock Option expiration)

 

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